Almirante Brown 4–2 Comunicaciones: Result & Stats

Almirante Brown

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Comunicaciones

T. Molina 90+1'

E. Melillo 41'

L. Banegas 33' (OG)

B. Machuca 16'

G. Pfund 49'

L. Soria 24'

10/14/2018

Primera B Metropolitana · Round 11Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento (La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Almirante Brown43%

×Draw30%

Comunicaciones27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Almirante BrownExpected goals in this matchComunicaciones

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.85

Almirante Brown

1.17

Comunicaciones

0.85

Almirante Brown creates 38% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 140 away

1.14

creates per match

1.01

0.69

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Almirante Brown

1.14

Comunicaciones

1.01

allows per match

Almirante Brown

0.69

Comunicaciones

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almirante Brown+0.00on par

Comunicaciones+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almirante Brown ↓

Comunicaciones →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Almirante Brown or draw

73%

Almirante Brown or Comunicaciones

70%

Draw or Comunicaciones

57%

Winning margin

Almirante Brown wins by 2+

19%

Comunicaciones wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Almirante Brown 1+ goals

69%

Almirante Brown 2+ goals

33%

Almirante Brown 3+ goals

11%

Comunicaciones 1+ goals

57%

Comunicaciones 2+ goals

21%

Comunicaciones 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Almirante Brown (draw refunded)

62%

Comunicaciones (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almirante Brown at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.69 · 35 matches

Comunicaciones away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.20 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almirante Brown attack 1.14 + Comunicaciones defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Comunicaciones attack 1.01 + Almirante Brown defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Almirante Brown scores more

43%

level

30%

Comunicaciones scores more

27%

Almirante Brown at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Almirante Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

B. Machuca

24'

L. Soria

33'

L. BanegasOwn goal

41'

E. Melillo

46'

R. Alonso← N. Monserrat

49'

G. Pfund

57'

C. Canan← S. Penco

59'

H. Salazar← Á. Vildozo

70'

M. Sproat← S. Tossi

76'

T. Molina← D. García

78'

J. Rodríguez← F. Perinciolo

90+1'

T. Molina

Almirante

Comunicaciones

🥅

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: B. Giunta

46'▲R. Alonso←▼N. Monserrat

57'▲C. Canan←▼S. Penco

76'▲T. Molina←▼D. García

Almirante Brown substitutes

AlonsoCananMolina

Manager: F. Zermatten

59'▲H. Salazar←▼Á. Vildozo

70'▲M. Sproat←▼S. Tossi

78'▲J. Rodríguez←▼F. Perinciolo

Comunicaciones substitutes

SalazarSproatRodríguez

Match Recap: Almirante Brown vs Comunicaciones

Almirante Brown beat Comunicaciones 4-2 in Primera B Metropolitana on October 14, 2018.

Goals: B. Machuca (16'), L. Soria (24'), L. Banegas (33' o.g.), E. Melillo (41'), G. Pfund (49'), T. Molina (90+1').

The match was played at Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento (La Matanza, Provincia de Buenos Aires).

Almirante Brown vs Comunicaciones — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Almirante Brown vs Comunicaciones