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Regar-TadAZ vs Ravshan Zafarobod — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
FT
2 – 2
Ravshan Zafarobod
Ravshan Zafarobod
4/2/2022Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 1TALCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Regar-TadAZ54%
×Draw24%
Ravshan Zafarobod23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Regar-TadAZ
1.76
Ravshan Zafarobod
1.06

Regar-TadAZ creates 66% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 11 away

creates per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.34
Ravshan Zafarobod
1.00

allows per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.13
Ravshan Zafarobod
2.18

finishing

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par
Ravshan Zafarobod+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Regar-TadAZ ↓

Ravshan Zafarobod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Regar-TadAZ or draw
77%
Regar-TadAZ or Ravshan Zafarobod
76%
Draw or Ravshan Zafarobod
46%

Winning margin

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
30%
Ravshan Zafarobod wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
83%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
52%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
26%
Ravshan Zafarobod 1+ goals
65%
Ravshan Zafarobod 2+ goals
29%
Ravshan Zafarobod 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
70%
Ravshan Zafarobod (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Regar-TadAZ at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 85 matches

Ravshan Zafarobod away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.34 + Ravshan Zafarobod defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.76

Ravshan Zafarobod attack 1.00 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Regar-TadAZ scores more
54%
level
24%
Ravshan Zafarobod scores more
23%

Regar-TadAZ at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Regar-TadAZ 2–2 Ravshan Zafarobod

Regar-TadAZ and Ravshan Zafarobod drew 2-2 in Vysshaya Liga on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at TALCO Arena in Tursunzoda.