Ravshan Zafarobod 0–5 Regar-TadAZ: Result & Stats

Ravshan Zafarobod

FT

0 – 5

Regar-TadAZ

11/11/2022

Vysshaya Liga · Relegation Round - 3Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ravshan Zafarobod27%

×Draw25%

Regar-TadAZ47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ravshan ZafarobodExpected goals in this matchRegar-TadAZ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.57

Ravshan Zafarobod

1.13

Regar-TadAZ

1.57

Regar-TadAZ creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 89 away

0.91

creates per match

1.15

2.00

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Ravshan Zafarobod

0.91

Regar-TadAZ

1.15

allows per match

Ravshan Zafarobod

2.00

Regar-TadAZ

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ravshan Zafarobod+0.00on par

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ravshan Zafarobod ↓

Regar-TadAZ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ravshan Zafarobod or draw

53%

Ravshan Zafarobod or Regar-TadAZ

75%

Draw or Regar-TadAZ

73%

Winning margin

Ravshan Zafarobod wins by 2+

11%

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Ravshan Zafarobod 1+ goals

68%

Ravshan Zafarobod 2+ goals

31%

Ravshan Zafarobod 3+ goals

11%

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals

79%

Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals

46%

Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Ravshan Zafarobod (draw refunded)

37%

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ravshan Zafarobod at home — creates 0.91, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ravshan Zafarobod attack 0.91 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.13

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.15 + Ravshan Zafarobod defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ravshan Zafarobod scores more

27%

level

25%

Regar-TadAZ scores more

47%

Regar-TadAZ at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff