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Regar-TadAZ vs Kuktosh — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Kuktosh
Kuktosh
Abdukhalil Boronov 23'
Muhiddin Odilov 65'
Sunday Song 64' (pen)
5/5/2023Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 8TALCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Regar-TadAZ57%
×Draw21%
Kuktosh22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Regar-TadAZ
2.03
Kuktosh
1.17

Regar-TadAZ creates 74% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

creates per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.47
Kuktosh
1.24

allows per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.09
Kuktosh
2.59

finishing

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par
Kuktosh+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Regar-TadAZ ↓

Kuktosh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Regar-TadAZ or draw
78%
Regar-TadAZ or Kuktosh
79%
Draw or Kuktosh
43%

Winning margin

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
34%
Kuktosh wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
87%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
60%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
33%
Kuktosh 1+ goals
69%
Kuktosh 2+ goals
33%
Kuktosh 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
73%
Kuktosh (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Regar-TadAZ at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Kuktosh away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.47 + Kuktosh defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.03

Kuktosh attack 1.24 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Regar-TadAZ scores more
57%
level
21%
Kuktosh scores more
22%

Regar-TadAZ at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
Abdukhalil Boronov
64'
Sunday SongPenalty
65'
Muhiddin Odilov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Regar-TadAZ vs Kuktosh

Kuktosh beat Regar-TadAZ 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on May 5, 2023.

Goals: Abdukhalil Boronov (23'), Sunday Song (64' pen), Muhiddin Odilov (65').

The match was played at TALCO Arena in Tursunzoda.