Kuktosh 4–2 Regar-TadAZ: Result & Stats

Kuktosh

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Regar-TadAZ

5/23/2023

Vysshaya Liga · Round 11Stadion Neftyanik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Kuktosh26%

×Draw27%

Regar-TadAZ47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuktoshExpected goals in this matchRegar-TadAZ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.42

Kuktosh

0.98

Regar-TadAZ

1.42

Regar-TadAZ creates 45% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 35 away

1.00

creates per match

1.14

1.69

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Kuktosh

1.00

Regar-TadAZ

1.14

allows per match

Kuktosh

1.69

Regar-TadAZ

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuktosh+0.00on par

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuktosh ↓

Regar-TadAZ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Kuktosh or draw

53%

Kuktosh or Regar-TadAZ

73%

Draw or Regar-TadAZ

74%

Winning margin

Kuktosh wins by 2+

9%

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Kuktosh 1+ goals

62%

Kuktosh 2+ goals

26%

Kuktosh 3+ goals

8%

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals

76%

Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals

41%

Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kuktosh (draw refunded)

36%

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuktosh at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuktosh attack 1.00 + Regar-TadAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.14 + Kuktosh defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kuktosh scores more

26%

level

27%

Regar-TadAZ scores more

47%

Regar-TadAZ at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff