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Regar-TadAZ vs FK Hulbuk — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Hulbuk
FK Hulbuk
10/17/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 19TALCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Regar-TadAZ46%
×Draw30%
FK Hulbuk24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Regar-TadAZ
1.20
FK Hulbuk
0.78

Regar-TadAZ creates 54% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 11 away

creates per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.49
FK Hulbuk
0.55

allows per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.00
FK Hulbuk
0.91

finishing

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par
FK Hulbuk+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Regar-TadAZ ↓

FK Hulbuk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Regar-TadAZ or draw
76%
Regar-TadAZ or FK Hulbuk
70%
Draw or FK Hulbuk
54%

Winning margin

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
20%
FK Hulbuk wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
70%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
34%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
12%
FK Hulbuk 1+ goals
54%
FK Hulbuk 2+ goals
18%
FK Hulbuk 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
66%
FK Hulbuk (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Regar-TadAZ at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 43 matches

FK Hulbuk away — creates 0.55, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.49 + FK Hulbuk defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.20

FK Hulbuk attack 0.55 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Regar-TadAZ scores more
46%
level
30%
FK Hulbuk scores more
24%

Regar-TadAZ at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Regar-TadAZ 0–0 FK Hulbuk

Regar-TadAZ and FK Hulbuk drew 0-0 in Vysshaya Liga on October 17, 2025.

The match was played at TALCO Arena in Tursunzoda.