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FK Hulbuk vs Regar-TadAZ — Vysshaya Liga 2025

FK Hulbuk
FK Hulbuk
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
S. Makhamadiev 56'
E. Frimpong 17', 1'
5/11/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 8Stadion Tesha Ismoilov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FK Hulbuk19%
×Draw22%
Regar-TadAZ58%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Hulbuk
0.98
Regar-TadAZ
1.88

Regar-TadAZ creates 92% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 48 away

creates per match

FK Hulbuk
0.92
Regar-TadAZ
1.17

allows per match

FK Hulbuk
2.58
Regar-TadAZ
1.04

finishing

FK Hulbuk+0.00on par
Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Hulbuk ↓

Regar-TadAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FK Hulbuk or draw
42%
FK Hulbuk or Regar-TadAZ
78%
Draw or Regar-TadAZ
81%

Winning margin

FK Hulbuk wins by 2+
7%
Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

FK Hulbuk 1+ goals
62%
FK Hulbuk 2+ goals
26%
FK Hulbuk 3+ goals
8%
Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
85%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
56%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

FK Hulbuk (draw refunded)
25%
Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Hulbuk at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.58 · 12 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.04 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Hulbuk attack 0.92 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.98

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.17 + FK Hulbuk defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FK Hulbuk scores more
19%
level
22%
Regar-TadAZ scores more
58%

Regar-TadAZ at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
E. Frimpong
17'
E. Frimpong
56'
S. Makhamadiev

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: FK Hulbuk 0–3 Regar-TadAZ

Regar-TadAZ beat FK Hulbuk 3-0 in Vysshaya Liga on May 11, 2025.

Goals: E. Frimpong (1', 17'), S. Makhamadiev (56').

The match was played at Stadion Tesha Ismoilov in Hulbuk.