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Regar-TadAZ vs CSKA Pomir — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
J. Oppong 90+7'
S. Sharipov 85' (OG)
A. Kwasi 90+1'
A. Boronov 37', 11' (pen)
10/26/2024Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 20TALCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Regar-TadAZ36%
×Draw29%
CSKA Pomir35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Regar-TadAZ
1.13
CSKA Pomir
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 33 away

creates per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.47
CSKA Pomir
1.15

allows per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.09
CSKA Pomir
0.79

finishing

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par
CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Regar-TadAZ ↓

CSKA Pomir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Regar-TadAZ or draw
65%
Regar-TadAZ or CSKA Pomir
71%
Draw or CSKA Pomir
64%

Winning margin

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
15%
CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
68%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
31%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
11%
CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
67%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
31%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
50%
CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Regar-TadAZ at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

CSKA Pomir away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.47 + CSKA Pomir defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.13

CSKA Pomir attack 1.15 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Regar-TadAZ scores more
36%
level
29%
CSKA Pomir scores more
35%

Regar-TadAZ at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
A. BoronovPenalty
37'
A. Boronov
85'
S. SharipovOwn goal
90+1'
A. Kwasi
90+7'
J. Oppong

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Regar-TadAZ 2–3 CSKA Pomir

CSKA Pomir beat Regar-TadAZ 3-2 in Vysshaya Liga on October 26, 2024.

Goals: A. Boronov (11' pen, 37'), S. Sharipov (85' o.g.), A. Kwasi (90+1'), J. Oppong (90+7').

The match was played at TALCO Arena in Tursunzoda.