CSKA Pomir 3–1 Regar-TadAZ: Result & Stats

CSKA Pomir

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Regar-TadAZ

M. Odilov 57'

J. Gatten 35'

V. Safarov 20'

Unknown 64'

6/1/2024

Vysshaya Liga · Round 9Hisor Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

CSKA Pomir43%

×Draw27%

Regar-TadAZ30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSKA PomirExpected goals in this matchRegar-TadAZ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.08

CSKA Pomir

1.35

Regar-TadAZ

1.08

CSKA Pomir creates 25% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 49 away

1.67

creates per match

1.14

1.02

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

CSKA Pomir

1.67

Regar-TadAZ

1.14

allows per match

CSKA Pomir

1.02

Regar-TadAZ

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Pomir ↓

Regar-TadAZ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

CSKA Pomir or draw

70%

CSKA Pomir or Regar-TadAZ

73%

Draw or Regar-TadAZ

57%

Winning margin

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+

20%

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals

74%

CSKA Pomir 2+ goals

39%

CSKA Pomir 3+ goals

15%

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals

66%

Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals

29%

Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)

59%

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Pomir at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.02 · 55 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Pomir attack 1.67 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.35

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.14 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

CSKA Pomir scores more

43%

level

27%

Regar-TadAZ scores more

30%

CSKA Pomir at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

V. Safarov

35'

J. Gatten

57'

M. Odilov

64'

86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff