Referencia U20 0–0 Portuguesa U20: Result & Stats

Referencia U20

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Portuguesa U20

9/5/2025

Paulista - U20 · Round of 32Estádio Municipal Hermínio Espósito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Referencia U2035%

×Draw25%

Portuguesa U2040%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Referencia U20Expected goals in this matchPortuguesa U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.46

Referencia U20

1.36

Portuguesa U20

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 16 away

1.35

creates per match

1.31

1.61

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Referencia U20

1.35

Portuguesa U20

1.31

allows per match

Referencia U20

1.61

Portuguesa U20

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Referencia U20+0.00on par

Portuguesa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Referencia U20 ↓

Portuguesa U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Referencia U20 or draw

60%

Referencia U20 or Portuguesa U20

75%

Draw or Portuguesa U20

65%

Winning margin

Referencia U20 wins by 2+

16%

Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Referencia U20 1+ goals

74%

Referencia U20 2+ goals

39%

Referencia U20 3+ goals

16%

Portuguesa U20 1+ goals

77%

Portuguesa U20 2+ goals

43%

Portuguesa U20 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Referencia U20 (draw refunded)

47%

Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Referencia U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Portuguesa U20 away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Referencia U20 attack 1.35 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Portuguesa U20 attack 1.31 + Referencia U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Referencia U20 scores more

35%

level

25%

Portuguesa U20 scores more

40%

Portuguesa U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Portuguesa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff