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Portuguesa U20 vs Referencia U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Portuguesa U20
Portuguesa U20
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Referencia U20
Referencia U20
Pedro Testa 61'
Deivison 51'
Luciano 71'
R. Moura 18'
7/27/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Dr. Oswaldo Teixeira Duarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Portuguesa U2054%
×Draw22%
Referencia U2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa U20
1.97
Referencia U20
1.26

Portuguesa U20 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

creates per match

Portuguesa U20
2.06
Referencia U20
1.46

allows per match

Portuguesa U20
1.06
Referencia U20
1.88

finishing

Portuguesa U20+0.00on par
Referencia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa U20 ↓

Referencia U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Portuguesa U20 or draw
76%
Portuguesa U20 or Referencia U20
78%
Draw or Referencia U20
46%

Winning margin

Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+
31%
Referencia U20 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Portuguesa U20 1+ goals
86%
Portuguesa U20 2+ goals
58%
Portuguesa U20 3+ goals
31%
Referencia U20 1+ goals
72%
Referencia U20 2+ goals
36%
Referencia U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)
69%
Referencia U20 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa U20 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Referencia U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa U20 attack 2.06 + Referencia U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.97

Referencia U20 attack 1.46 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Portuguesa U20 scores more
54%
level
22%
Referencia U20 scores more
24%

Portuguesa U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Portuguesa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
R. Moura
51'
Deivison
61'
Pedro Testa
71'
Luciano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Portuguesa U20 2–2 Referencia U20

Portuguesa U20 and Referencia U20 drew 2-2 in Paulista - U20 on July 27, 2025.

Goals: R. Moura (18'), Deivison (51'), Pedro Testa (61'), Luciano (71').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Oswaldo Teixeira Duarte in São Paulo, São Paulo.