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Referencia U20 vs Água Santa U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Referencia U20
Referencia U20
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Água Santa U20
Água Santa U20
G. Mendes 43'
R. Rodrigues 90' (pen)
K. Bueno 11' (pen)
6/5/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Referencia U2044%
×Draw24%
Água Santa U2032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Referencia U20
1.68
Água Santa U20
1.40

Referencia U20 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 16 away

creates per match

Referencia U20
1.35
Água Santa U20
1.19

allows per match

Referencia U20
1.61
Água Santa U20
2.00

finishing

Referencia U20+0.00on par
Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Referencia U20 ↓

Água Santa U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Referencia U20 or draw
68%
Referencia U20 or Água Santa U20
76%
Draw or Água Santa U20
56%

Winning margin

Referencia U20 wins by 2+
23%
Água Santa U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Referencia U20 1+ goals
81%
Referencia U20 2+ goals
50%
Referencia U20 3+ goals
24%
Água Santa U20 1+ goals
75%
Água Santa U20 2+ goals
41%
Água Santa U20 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Referencia U20 (draw refunded)
58%
Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Referencia U20 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Água Santa U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Referencia U20 attack 1.35 + Água Santa U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Água Santa U20 attack 1.19 + Referencia U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Referencia U20 scores more
44%
level
24%
Água Santa U20 scores more
32%

Referencia U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Referencia U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
K. BuenoPenalty
43'
G. Mendes
90'
R. RodriguesPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Referencia U20 vs Água Santa U20

Água Santa U20 beat Referencia U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 5, 2026.

Goals: K. Bueno (11' pen), G. Mendes (43'), R. Rodrigues (90' pen).