Água Santa U20 1–1 Referencia U20: Result & Stats

Água Santa U20

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Referencia U20

F. Mandarino 55'

Luciano 64'

6/27/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Distrital do Jardim Inamar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Água Santa U2048%

×Draw24%

Referencia U2028%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Água Santa U20Expected goals in this matchReferencia U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.26

Água Santa U20

1.71

Referencia U20

1.26

Água Santa U20 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

1.53

creates per match

1.46

1.06

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Água Santa U20

1.53

Referencia U20

1.46

allows per match

Água Santa U20

1.06

Referencia U20

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Água Santa U20+0.00on par

Referencia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Água Santa U20 ↓

Referencia U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Água Santa U20 or draw

72%

Água Santa U20 or Referencia U20

76%

Draw or Referencia U20

52%

Winning margin

Água Santa U20 wins by 2+

26%

Referencia U20 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Água Santa U20 1+ goals

82%

Água Santa U20 2+ goals

51%

Água Santa U20 3+ goals

24%

Referencia U20 1+ goals

72%

Referencia U20 2+ goals

36%

Referencia U20 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Água Santa U20 (draw refunded)

63%

Referencia U20 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Água Santa U20 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Referencia U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Água Santa U20 attack 1.53 + Referencia U20 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.71

Referencia U20 attack 1.46 + Água Santa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Água Santa U20 scores more

48%

level

24%

Referencia U20 scores more

28%

Água Santa U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Água Santa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

F. Mandarino

64'

Luciano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff