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Redlands vs Capo II — USL League Two 2026

Redlands
Redlands
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Capo II
Capo II
5/19/2024USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 2Dodge Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Redlands46%
×Draw20%
Capo II33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Redlands
2.23
Capo II
1.88

Redlands creates 19% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

creates per match

Redlands
2.83
Capo II
2.09

allows per match

Redlands
1.67
Capo II
1.64

finishing

Redlands+0.00on par
Capo II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redlands ↓

Capo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Redlands or draw
67%
Redlands or Capo II
80%
Draw or Capo II
54%

Winning margin

Redlands wins by 2+
27%
Capo II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Redlands 1+ goals
89%
Redlands 2+ goals
65%
Redlands 3+ goals
38%
Capo II 1+ goals
85%
Capo II 2+ goals
56%
Capo II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Redlands (draw refunded)
58%
Capo II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redlands at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Capo II away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redlands attack 2.83 + Capo II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.23

Capo II attack 2.09 + Redlands defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Redlands scores more
46%
level
20%
Capo II scores more
33%

Redlands at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Redlands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Redlands 1–4 Capo II

Capo II beat Redlands 4-1 in USL League Two on May 19, 2024.

The match was played at Dodge Stadium in Redlands, California.