Capo II 4–4 Redlands: Result & Stats

Capo II

FT

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Redlands

7/3/2024

USL League Two · Western Conference - 17Irvine Valley College

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Capo II37%

×Draw21%

Redlands42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Capo IIExpected goals in this matchRedlands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

2.13

Capo II

2.00

Redlands

2.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

2.36

creates per match

2.71

1.55

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Capo II

2.36

Redlands

2.71

allows per match

Capo II

1.55

Redlands

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Capo II+0.00on par

Redlands+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Capo II ↓

Redlands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Capo II or draw

58%

Capo II or Redlands

79%

Draw or Redlands

63%

Winning margin

Capo II wins by 2+

20%

Redlands wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Capo II 1+ goals

86%

Capo II 2+ goals

59%

Capo II 3+ goals

32%

Redlands 1+ goals

88%

Redlands 2+ goals

63%

Redlands 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Capo II (draw refunded)

47%

Redlands (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Capo II at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

Redlands away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Capo II attack 2.36 + Redlands defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.00

Redlands attack 2.71 + Capo II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Capo II scores more

37%

level

21%

Redlands scores more

42%

Redlands at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Redlands will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff