Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Redlands United vs Mitchelton — Queensland Premier League 2026

Redlands United
Redlands United
FT
4 – 0
Mitchelton
Mitchelton
3/25/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 2Arthur & Allan Morris Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Redlands United59%
×Draw19%
Mitchelton22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Redlands United
2.43
Mitchelton
1.45

Redlands United creates 68% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 43 away

creates per match

Redlands United
2.19
Mitchelton
1.33

allows per match

Redlands United
1.56
Mitchelton
2.67

finishing

Redlands United+0.00on par
Mitchelton+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redlands United ↓

Mitchelton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Redlands United or draw
78%
Redlands United or Mitchelton
81%
Draw or Mitchelton
41%

Winning margin

Redlands United wins by 2+
38%
Mitchelton wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Redlands United 1+ goals
91%
Redlands United 2+ goals
69%
Redlands United 3+ goals
43%
Mitchelton 1+ goals
77%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
42%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Redlands United (draw refunded)
73%
Mitchelton (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redlands United at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Mitchelton away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redlands United attack 2.19 + Mitchelton defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.43

Mitchelton attack 1.33 + Redlands United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Redlands United scores more
59%
level
19%
Mitchelton scores more
22%

Redlands United at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Redlands United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Redlands United 4–0 Mitchelton

Redlands United beat Mitchelton 4-0 in Queensland Premier League on March 25, 2022.

The match was played at Arthur & Allan Morris Field in Brisbane.