Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mitchelton vs Redlands United — Queensland Premier League 2026

Mitchelton
Mitchelton
FT
1 – 2
Redlands United
Redlands United
6/11/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 13Teralba Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Mitchelton26%
×Draw19%
Redlands United54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mitchelton
1.67
Redlands United
2.43

Redlands United creates 46% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 30 away

creates per match

Mitchelton
1.73
Redlands United
2.27

allows per match

Mitchelton
2.59
Redlands United
1.60

finishing

Mitchelton+0.00on par
Redlands United+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mitchelton ↓

Redlands United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Mitchelton or draw
46%
Mitchelton or Redlands United
81%
Draw or Redlands United
74%

Winning margin

Mitchelton wins by 2+
12%
Redlands United wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Mitchelton 1+ goals
81%
Mitchelton 2+ goals
50%
Mitchelton 3+ goals
23%
Redlands United 1+ goals
91%
Redlands United 2+ goals
69%
Redlands United 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Mitchelton (draw refunded)
33%
Redlands United (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mitchelton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 2.59 · 41 matches

Redlands United away — creates 2.27, concedes 1.60 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mitchelton attack 1.73 + Redlands United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.67

Redlands United attack 2.27 + Mitchelton defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mitchelton scores more
26%
level
19%
Redlands United scores more
54%

Redlands United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Redlands United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mitchelton vs Redlands United

Redlands United beat Mitchelton 2-1 in Queensland Premier League on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Teralba Park in Mitchelton.