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Redlands United vs Brisbane Roar II — Queensland NPL 2026

Redlands United
Redlands United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Brisbane Roar II
Brisbane Roar II
8/28/2021Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 22Arthur & Allan Morris Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Redlands United28%
×Draw21%
Brisbane Roar II51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Redlands United
1.52
Brisbane Roar II
2.13

Brisbane Roar II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 91 away

creates per match

Redlands United
1.26
Brisbane Roar II
1.92

allows per match

Redlands United
2.34
Brisbane Roar II
1.79

finishing

Redlands United+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redlands United ↓

Brisbane Roar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Redlands United or draw
49%
Redlands United or Brisbane Roar II
79%
Draw or Brisbane Roar II
72%

Winning margin

Redlands United wins by 2+
13%
Brisbane Roar II wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Redlands United 1+ goals
78%
Redlands United 2+ goals
45%
Redlands United 3+ goals
20%
Brisbane Roar II 1+ goals
88%
Brisbane Roar II 2+ goals
63%
Brisbane Roar II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Redlands United (draw refunded)
35%
Brisbane Roar II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redlands United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

Brisbane Roar II away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.79 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redlands United attack 1.26 + Brisbane Roar II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Brisbane Roar II attack 1.92 + Redlands United defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Redlands United scores more
28%
level
21%
Brisbane Roar II scores more
51%

Brisbane Roar II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Brisbane Roar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland NPL: Redlands United 1–3 Brisbane Roar II

Brisbane Roar II beat Redlands United 3-1 in Queensland NPL on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Arthur & Allan Morris Field in Brisbane.