Brisbane Roar II 2–4 Redlands United

Brisbane Roar II

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Redlands United

6/9/2024

Queensland NPL · Round 14Nudgee Recreation Reserve Field 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Brisbane Roar II47%

×Draw21%

Redlands United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brisbane Roar IIExpected goals in this matchRedlands United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.66

Brisbane Roar II

2.06

Redlands United

1.66

Brisbane Roar II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 60 away

1.67

creates per match

1.35

1.96

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Brisbane Roar II

1.67

Redlands United

1.35

allows per match

Brisbane Roar II

1.96

Redlands United

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brisbane Roar II+0.00on par

Redlands United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brisbane Roar II ↓

Redlands United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Brisbane Roar II or draw

68%

Brisbane Roar II or Redlands United

79%

Draw or Redlands United

53%

Winning margin

Brisbane Roar II wins by 2+

27%

Redlands United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Brisbane Roar II 1+ goals

87%

Brisbane Roar II 2+ goals

61%

Brisbane Roar II 3+ goals

34%

Redlands United 1+ goals

81%

Redlands United 2+ goals

49%

Redlands United 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Brisbane Roar II (draw refunded)

60%

Redlands United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brisbane Roar II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.96 · 94 matches

Redlands United away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.45 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brisbane Roar II attack 1.67 + Redlands United defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.06

Redlands United attack 1.35 + Brisbane Roar II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Brisbane Roar II scores more

47%

level

21%

Redlands United scores more

32%

Brisbane Roar II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Brisbane Roar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff