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Redeyef vs EGS Gafsa — Ligue 2 2020

Redeyef
Redeyef
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
11/16/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Redeyef52%
×Draw27%
EGS Gafsa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Redeyef
1.41
EGS Gafsa
0.79

Redeyef creates 78% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 36 away

creates per match

Redeyef
1.54
EGS Gafsa
0.89

allows per match

Redeyef
0.69
EGS Gafsa
1.28

finishing

Redeyef+0.00on par
EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redeyef ↓

EGS Gafsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Redeyef or draw
79%
Redeyef or EGS Gafsa
73%
Draw or EGS Gafsa
48%

Winning margin

Redeyef wins by 2+
26%
EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Redeyef 1+ goals
76%
Redeyef 2+ goals
41%
Redeyef 3+ goals
17%
EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
55%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
19%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Redeyef (draw refunded)
71%
EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redeyef at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redeyef attack 1.54 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.41

EGS Gafsa attack 0.89 + Redeyef defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Redeyef scores more
52%
level
27%
EGS Gafsa scores more
21%

Redeyef at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Redeyef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Redeyef vs EGS Gafsa

Redeyef beat EGS Gafsa 2-1 in Ligue 2 on November 16, 2025.