EGS Gafsa 0–0 Redeyef: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

EGS Gafsa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Redeyef

4/11/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

EGS Gafsa66%

×Draw23%

Redeyef11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EGS GafsaExpected goals in this matchRedeyef

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.53

EGS Gafsa

1.70

Redeyef

0.53

EGS Gafsa creates 221% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 26 away

1.63

creates per match

0.50

0.55

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

EGS Gafsa

1.63

Redeyef

0.50

allows per match

EGS Gafsa

0.55

Redeyef

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Redeyef+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

Redeyef →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw

89%

EGS Gafsa or Redeyef

77%

Draw or Redeyef

34%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+

38%

Redeyef wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals

82%

EGS Gafsa 2+ goals

51%

EGS Gafsa 3+ goals

24%

Redeyef 1+ goals

41%

Redeyef 2+ goals

10%

Redeyef 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)

86%

Redeyef (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.55 · 38 matches

Redeyef away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.63 + Redeyef defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.70

Redeyef attack 0.50 + EGS Gafsa defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more

66%

level

23%

Redeyef scores more

11%

EGS Gafsa at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff