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Redeyef vs Baath Bouhajla — Ligue 2 2020

Redeyef
Redeyef
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Baath Bouhajla
Baath Bouhajla
12/20/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Municipal de Redeyef

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Redeyef52%
×Draw29%
Baath Bouhajla19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Redeyef
1.31
Baath Bouhajla
0.66

Redeyef creates 98% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Redeyef
1.54
Baath Bouhajla
0.62

allows per match

Redeyef
0.69
Baath Bouhajla
1.08

finishing

Redeyef+0.00on par
Baath Bouhajla+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redeyef ↓

Baath Bouhajla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Redeyef or draw
81%
Redeyef or Baath Bouhajla
71%
Draw or Baath Bouhajla
48%

Winning margin

Redeyef wins by 2+
25%
Baath Bouhajla wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Redeyef 1+ goals
73%
Redeyef 2+ goals
38%
Redeyef 3+ goals
14%
Baath Bouhajla 1+ goals
48%
Baath Bouhajla 2+ goals
14%
Baath Bouhajla 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Redeyef (draw refunded)
74%
Baath Bouhajla (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redeyef at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.69 · 26 matches

Baath Bouhajla away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redeyef attack 1.54 + Baath Bouhajla defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31

Baath Bouhajla attack 0.62 + Redeyef defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Redeyef scores more
52%
level
29%
Baath Bouhajla scores more
19%

Redeyef at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Redeyef will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Redeyef vs Baath Bouhajla

Redeyef beat Baath Bouhajla 2-0 in Ligue 2 on December 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Redeyef in Redeyef.