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Baath Bouhajla vs Redeyef — Ligue 2 2020

Baath Bouhajla
Baath Bouhajla
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Redeyef
Redeyef
5/5/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 23Stade Hamda Laouani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Baath Bouhajla57%
×Draw28%
Redeyef15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baath Bouhajla
1.39
Redeyef
0.56

Baath Bouhajla creates 148% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Baath Bouhajla
1.00
Redeyef
0.50

allows per match

Baath Bouhajla
0.62
Redeyef
1.77

finishing

Baath Bouhajla+0.00on par
Redeyef+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baath Bouhajla ↓

Redeyef →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Baath Bouhajla or draw
85%
Baath Bouhajla or Redeyef
72%
Draw or Redeyef
43%

Winning margin

Baath Bouhajla wins by 2+
29%
Redeyef wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Baath Bouhajla 1+ goals
75%
Baath Bouhajla 2+ goals
40%
Baath Bouhajla 3+ goals
16%
Redeyef 1+ goals
43%
Redeyef 2+ goals
11%
Redeyef 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Baath Bouhajla (draw refunded)
79%
Redeyef (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baath Bouhajla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Redeyef away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baath Bouhajla attack 1.00 + Redeyef defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

Redeyef attack 0.50 + Baath Bouhajla defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Baath Bouhajla scores more
57%
level
28%
Redeyef scores more
15%

Baath Bouhajla at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Baath Bouhajla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baath Bouhajla vs Redeyef

Baath Bouhajla and Redeyef drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on May 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Hamda Laouani in Kairouan.