Reddis 3–1 Rapitenca: Result & Stats

Reddis

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rapitenca

Aitor Serrano 87', 37'

H. Toivonen 58'

Gerard Vergé 29'

4/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 31Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Reddis58%

×Draw25%

Rapitenca17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchRapitenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.76

Reddis

1.63

Rapitenca

0.76

Reddis creates 114% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 32 away

1.47

creates per match

0.94

0.59

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

Rapitenca

0.94

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

Rapitenca

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Rapitenca →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

83%

Reddis or Rapitenca

75%

Draw or Rapitenca

42%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

32%

Rapitenca wins by 2+

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

80%

Reddis 2+ goals

48%

Reddis 3+ goals

22%

Rapitenca 1+ goals

53%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

18%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

77%

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

Rapitenca away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + Rapitenca defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

Rapitenca attack 0.94 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Reddis scores more

58%

level

25%

Rapitenca scores more

17%

Reddis at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Gerard Vergé

37'

Aitor Serrano

58'

H. Toivonen

62'

Albert Saragossa← Adam Hafidh

62'

Marc Barragán← José Carlos

65'

David Escudero← Ian Arqués

66'

Raúl Melo← Pol Benito

72'

Álex Forés← Mario Hernández

75'

Albert Miravent← H. Toivonen

75'

Ramón Sardà← Alberto Benito

87'

Aitor Serrano

88'

Cesc Martínez← Ricardo Vaz

88'

Ian Martínez← Aitor Serrano

Reddis

Rapitenca

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Serrano

⚽

▼

Toivonen

▼

Benito

Manager: Marc Carrasco

66'▲Raúl Melo←▼Pol Benito

75'▲Albert Miravent←▼H. Toivonen

75'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Alberto Benito

88'▲Cesc Martínez←▼Ricardo Vaz

88'▲Ian Martínez←▼Aitor Serrano

Reddis substitutes

MeloMiraventSardàMartínezMartínez

62'▲Albert Saragossa←▼Adam Hafidh

62'▲Marc Barragán←▼José Carlos

65'▲David Escudero←▼Ian Arqués

72'▲Álex Forés←▼Mario Hernández

Rapitenca substitutes

SaragossaBarragánEscuderoForés