Rapitenca 3–2 Reddis: Result & Stats

Rapitenca

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Reddis

Gerard Vergé 80'

Lolo Garrido 67'

Adam Hafidh 35'

Ramón Sardà 71'

Raúl Melo 69'

12/17/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 14Estadio La Devesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Rapitenca36%

×Draw27%

Reddis37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RapitencaExpected goals in this matchReddis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.23

Rapitenca

1.20

Reddis

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 34 away

1.34

creates per match

1.15

1.31

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Rapitenca

1.34

Reddis

1.15

allows per match

Rapitenca

1.31

Reddis

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rapitenca+0.00on par

Reddis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rapitenca ↓

Reddis →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rapitenca or draw

63%

Rapitenca or Reddis

73%

Draw or Reddis

64%

Winning margin

Rapitenca wins by 2+

15%

Reddis wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rapitenca 1+ goals

70%

Rapitenca 2+ goals

34%

Rapitenca 3+ goals

12%

Reddis 1+ goals

71%

Reddis 2+ goals

35%

Reddis 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rapitenca (draw refunded)

49%

Reddis (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rapitenca at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.31 · 32 matches

Reddis away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rapitenca attack 1.34 + Reddis defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Reddis attack 1.15 + Rapitenca defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rapitenca scores more

36%

level

27%

Reddis scores more

37%

Reddis at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Adam Hafidh

66'

Ramón Sardà← Modest Notario

67'

Lolo Garrido

69'

Raúl Melo

71'

Álex Forés← Albert Saragossa

71'

Ramón Sardà

79'

Gerard Vergé← Adam Hafidh

80'

Gerard Vergé

83'

Ian Arqués← Lolo Garrido

86'

Sebastian Romero← Hugo Moreno

Rapitenca

Reddis

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Hafidh

▼

Saragossa

Barragán

Manager: Carlos Ríos

71'▲Álex Forés←▼Albert Saragossa

79'▲Gerard Vergé←▼Adam Hafidh

83'▲Ian Arqués←▼Lolo Garrido

Rapitenca substitutes

ForésVergéArqués

Manager: Marc Carrasco

66'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Modest Notario

86'▲Sebastian Romero←▼Hugo Moreno

Reddis substitutes

SardàRomero

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Rapitenca 3–2 Reddis

Rapitenca beat Reddis 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 17, 2023.

Goals: Adam Hafidh (35'), Lolo Garrido (67'), Raúl Melo (69'), Ramón Sardà (71'), Gerard Vergé (80').

The match was played at Estadio La Devesa in Sant Carles de la Ràpita.

Rapitenca vs Reddis — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Rapitenca 3–2 Reddis