Reddis 1–0 Prat: Result & Stats

Reddis

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Prat

Aitor Serrano 20'

12/2/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 13Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reddis51%

×Draw28%

Prat21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchPrat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.79

Reddis

1.38

Prat

0.79

Reddis creates 75% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

1.47

creates per match

1.00

0.59

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

Prat

1.00

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

Prat

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

Prat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Prat →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

79%

Reddis or Prat

72%

Draw or Prat

49%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

25%

Prat wins by 2+

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

75%

Reddis 2+ goals

40%

Reddis 3+ goals

16%

Prat 1+ goals

55%

Prat 2+ goals

19%

Prat 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

70%

Prat (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

Prat away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + Prat defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Prat attack 1.00 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Reddis scores more

51%

level

28%

Prat scores more

21%

Reddis at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

Aitor Serrano

62'

David Adan← Ivan Torres

68'

Hugo Moreno← Víctor Oribe

68'

Miki Puerto← Miguel Fernández

68'

Julen Álvarez← Yusef Lasgaa

78'

Álvaro← Izan Maldonado

78'

Pau Caresia← Lamelas

80'

Modest Notario← Jordi Oribe

80'

Cesc Martínez← Nico Díaz

87'

Ramón Sardà← Aitor Serrano

Reddis

Prat

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Serrano

Manager: Marc Carrasco

68'▲Hugo Moreno←▼Víctor Oribe

80'▲Modest Notario←▼Jordi Oribe

80'▲Cesc Martínez←▼Nico Díaz

87'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Aitor Serrano

Reddis substitutes

MorenoNotarioMartínezSardà

Manager: Miguel Ángel Motoso

62'▲David Adan←▼Ivan Torres

68'▲Miki Puerto←▼Miguel Fernández

68'▲Julen Álvarez←▼Yusef Lasgaa

78'▲Álvaro←▼Izan Maldonado

78'▲Pau Caresia←▼Lamelas

Prat substitutes

AdanPuertoÁlvarezÁlvaroCaresia

Reddis 1 – 0 Prat

Reddis beat Prat 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 2, 2023.

Goals: Aitor Serrano (20').

The match was played at Estadio Camp Nou Municipal in Reus.

Reddis vs Prat — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Reddis 1 – 0 Prat