Prat 0–0 Reddis: Result & Stats

Prat

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Reddis

4/21/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 30Estadio Municipal Sagnier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Prat31%

×Draw29%

Reddis40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PratExpected goals in this matchReddis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.18

Prat

1.02

Reddis

1.18

Reddis creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

0.97

creates per match

1.15

1.21

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Prat

0.97

Reddis

1.15

allows per match

Prat

1.21

Reddis

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Prat+0.00on par

Reddis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prat ↓

Reddis →

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Prat or draw

60%

Prat or Reddis

71%

Draw or Reddis

69%

Winning margin

Prat wins by 2+

12%

Reddis wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Prat 1+ goals

64%

Prat 2+ goals

27%

Prat 3+ goals

Reddis 1+ goals

69%

Reddis 2+ goals

33%

Reddis 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Prat (draw refunded)

44%

Reddis (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Prat at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

Reddis away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Prat attack 0.97 + Reddis defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.02

Reddis attack 1.15 + Prat defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Prat scores more

31%

level

29%

Reddis scores more

40%

Reddis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

Izan Maldonado← Miki Puerto

61'

Alejandro Pino← Javier García

61'

Aitor Serrano← Ramón Sardà

61'

Ian Martínez← Alberto Benito

74'

Álvaro← A. Kerobyan

74'

Albert Miravent← Ricardo Vaz

83'

Pol Benito← Hugo Moreno

Prat

Reddis

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Miguel Ángel Motoso

61'▲Izan Maldonado←▼Miki Puerto

61'▲Alejandro Pino←▼Javier García

74'▲Álvaro←▼A. Kerobyan

Prat substitutes

MaldonadoPinoÁlvaro

Manager: Marc Carrasco

61'▲Aitor Serrano←▼Ramón Sardà

61'▲Ian Martínez←▼Alberto Benito

74'▲Albert Miravent←▼Ricardo Vaz

83'▲Pol Benito←▼Hugo Moreno

Reddis substitutes

SerranoMartínezMiraventBenito

Match Recap: Prat vs Reddis

Prat and Reddis drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Sagnier in El Prat de Llobregat.

Prat vs Reddis — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Prat vs Reddis