Reddis 1–1 Pobla Mafumet: Result & Stats

Reddis

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Pobla Mafumet

Xavi Jaime 55'

Arnau Sans 88'

11/8/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 5Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reddis51%

×Draw27%

Pobla Mafumet22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchPobla Mafumet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.83

Reddis

1.41

Pobla Mafumet

0.83

Reddis creates 70% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 76 away

1.47

creates per match

1.07

0.59

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

Pobla Mafumet

1.07

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

Pobla Mafumet

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Pobla Mafumet →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

78%

Reddis or Pobla Mafumet

73%

Draw or Pobla Mafumet

49%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

25%

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

76%

Reddis 2+ goals

41%

Reddis 3+ goals

17%

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

56%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

20%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

70%

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.41

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Reddis scores more

51%

level

27%

Pobla Mafumet scores more

22%

Reddis at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Sergi Quirós← Teo Pozo

55'

Xavi Jaime

71'

Aleix Grabulosa← José Enrique

71'

Danilo Luís← Pouget

72'

Modest Notario← Ramón Folch

83'

Dani Argilaga← Hugo Moreno

83'

Ramón Sardà← Víctor Oribe

88'

Arnau Sans

89'

Raúl Melo← Aitor Serrano

89'

Pol Benito← Alberto Benito

90+2'

L. Igbineweka← Guzmán

Reddis

Pobla

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Marc Carrasco

72'▲Modest Notario←▼Ramón Folch

83'▲Dani Argilaga←▼Hugo Moreno

83'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Víctor Oribe

89'▲Raúl Melo←▼Aitor Serrano

89'▲Pol Benito←▼Alberto Benito

Reddis substitutes

NotarioArgilagaSardàMeloBenito

Manager: Adolfo Baines

55'▲Sergi Quirós←▼Teo Pozo

71'▲Aleix Grabulosa←▼José Enrique

71'▲Danilo Luís←▼Pouget

90+2'▲L. Igbineweka←▼Guzmán

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

QuirósGrabulosaLuísIgbineweka