Pobla Mafumet 0–0 Reddis: Result & Stats

Pobla Mafumet

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Reddis

2/24/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 22Estadio Municipal de La Pobla de Mafumet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Pobla Mafumet41%

×Draw29%

Reddis30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pobla MafumetExpected goals in this matchReddis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.98

Pobla Mafumet

1.21

Reddis

0.98

Pobla Mafumet creates 23% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 34 away

1.36

creates per match

1.15

0.81

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Pobla Mafumet

1.36

Reddis

1.15

allows per match

Pobla Mafumet

0.81

Reddis

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Reddis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pobla Mafumet ↓

Reddis →

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Pobla Mafumet or draw

70%

Pobla Mafumet or Reddis

71%

Draw or Reddis

59%

Winning margin

Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+

18%

Reddis wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals

70%

Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals

34%

Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals

12%

Reddis 1+ goals

62%

Reddis 2+ goals

26%

Reddis 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)

58%

Reddis (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pobla Mafumet at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.81 · 77 matches

Reddis away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.36 + Reddis defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Reddis attack 1.15 + Pobla Mafumet defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pobla Mafumet scores more

41%

level

29%

Reddis scores more

30%

Pobla Mafumet at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pobla Mafumet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

62'

Ian Martínez← Ramón Sardà

75'

L. Igbineweka← Monne

75'

F. Schug← Aleix Grabulosa

79'

Xavi Jaime← Hugo Moreno

79'

Albert Miravent← Ricardo Vaz

81'

Dani García← Joan Torrents

89'

Teo Pozo← Juan Barragán

90+2'

H. Toivonen← Aitor Serrano

Pobla

Reddis

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Adolfo Baines

75'▲L. Igbineweka←▼Monne

75'▲F. Schug←▼Aleix Grabulosa

81'▲Dani García←▼Joan Torrents

89'▲Teo Pozo←▼Juan Barragán

Pobla Mafumet substitutes

IgbinewekaSchugGarcíaPozo

Manager: Marc Carrasco

62'▲Ian Martínez←▼Ramón Sardà

79'▲Xavi Jaime←▼Hugo Moreno

79'▲Albert Miravent←▼Ricardo Vaz

90+2'▲H. Toivonen←▼Aitor Serrano

Reddis substitutes

MartínezJaimeMiraventToivonen