Reddis 2–0 Mollerussa: Result & Stats

Reddis

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mollerussa

Pol Benito 76'

Franc Carbonell 72' (OG)

2/2/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 20Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reddis54%

×Draw26%

Mollerussa20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchMollerussa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.81

Reddis

1.51

Mollerussa

0.81

Reddis creates 86% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 51 away

1.47

creates per match

1.04

0.59

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

Mollerussa

1.04

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

Mollerussa

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

Mollerussa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Mollerussa →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

80%

Reddis or Mollerussa

74%

Draw or Mollerussa

46%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

28%

Mollerussa wins by 2+

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

78%

Reddis 2+ goals

44%

Reddis 3+ goals

19%

Mollerussa 1+ goals

56%

Mollerussa 2+ goals

19%

Mollerussa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

73%

Mollerussa (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

Mollerussa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + Mollerussa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.51

Mollerussa attack 1.04 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Reddis scores more

54%

level

26%

Mollerussa scores more

20%

Reddis at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Hugo Moreno← Ramón Folch

58'

Franc Carbonell← Miquel Graells

64'

Marc Grau← Pedro Martín

64'

Joan Torrents← Aitor Serrano

72'

Franc CarbonellOwn goal

73'

Putxi← Enric Bernat

73'

Jordi Puig← L. Juwara

76'

Pol Benito

83'

Nico Díaz← Ricardo Vaz

83'

Pol Fernández← Pol Benito

90+2'

Daniel Echeverria← Pau Font

Reddis

Mollerussa

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Benito

Manager: Marc Carrasco

26'▲Hugo Moreno←▼Ramón Folch

64'▲Marc Grau←▼Pedro Martín

64'▲Joan Torrents←▼Aitor Serrano

83'▲Nico Díaz←▼Ricardo Vaz

83'▲Pol Fernández←▼Pol Benito

Reddis substitutes

MorenoGrauTorrentsDíazFernández

Manager: M. El Yaagoubi

58'▲Franc Carbonell←▼Miquel Graells

73'▲Putxi←▼Enric Bernat

73'▲Jordi Puig←▼L. Juwara

90+2'▲Daniel Echeverria←▼Pau Font

Mollerussa substitutes

CarbonellPutxiPuigEcheverria