Mollerussa 2–3 Reddis: Result & Stats

Mollerussa

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Reddis

Enric Bernat 73'

Konu 41' (pen)

Pol Benito 90'

Xavi Jaime 49'

Alberto Benito 17'

9/22/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 3Camp Municipal d'Esports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mollerussa37%

×Draw27%

Reddis36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MollerussaExpected goals in this matchReddis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.22

Mollerussa

1.23

Reddis

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.41

creates per match

1.15

1.29

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Mollerussa

1.41

Reddis

1.15

allows per match

Mollerussa

1.29

Reddis

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mollerussa+0.00on par

Reddis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mollerussa ↓

Reddis →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mollerussa or draw

64%

Mollerussa or Reddis

73%

Draw or Reddis

63%

Winning margin

Mollerussa wins by 2+

16%

Reddis wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mollerussa 1+ goals

71%

Mollerussa 2+ goals

35%

Mollerussa 3+ goals

13%

Reddis 1+ goals

70%

Reddis 2+ goals

34%

Reddis 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mollerussa (draw refunded)

50%

Reddis (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mollerussa at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

Reddis away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mollerussa attack 1.41 + Reddis defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Reddis attack 1.15 + Mollerussa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mollerussa scores more

37%

level

27%

Reddis scores more

36%

Mollerussa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mollerussa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Alberto Benito

41'

KonuPenalty

49'

Xavi Jaime

54'

Marc Grau← Pau Russó

67'

Putxi← Carlos Martinez

67'

Miquel Graells← L. Juwara

67'

Jofre Graells← Konu

71'

Nico Díaz← Joan Torrents

73'

Enric Bernat

77'

Jordi Ars← Enric Bernat

80'

Pol Benito← Xavi Jaime

80'

Ramón Sardà← Alberto Benito

87'

Albert Delgado← S. Ndiaye

90'

Pol Benito

Mollerussa

Reddis

Verdejo

Molina

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Konu

Manager: Jordi Cortés

67'▲Putxi←▼Carlos Martinez

67'▲Miquel Graells←▼L. Juwara

67'▲Jofre Graells←▼Konu

77'▲Jordi Ars←▼Enric Bernat

87'▲Albert Delgado←▼S. Ndiaye

Mollerussa substitutes

PutxiGraellsGraellsArsDelgado

Manager: Marc Carrasco

54'▲Marc Grau←▼Pau Russó

71'▲Nico Díaz←▼Joan Torrents

80'▲Pol Benito←▼Xavi Jaime

80'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Alberto Benito

Reddis substitutes

GrauDíazBenitoSardà