Reddis 4–0 Grama: Result & Stats

Reddis

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Grama

Ramón Sardà 87'

Ricardo Vaz 60'

Joan Torrents 29', 19'

11/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 10Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reddis49%

×Draw26%

Grama24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchGrama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.97

Reddis

1.50

Grama

0.97

Reddis creates 55% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 95 away

1.47

creates per match

1.34

0.59

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

Grama

1.34

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

Grama

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

Grama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Grama →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

76%

Reddis or Grama

74%

Draw or Grama

51%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

25%

Grama wins by 2+

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

78%

Reddis 2+ goals

44%

Reddis 3+ goals

19%

Grama 1+ goals

62%

Grama 2+ goals

25%

Grama 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

67%

Grama (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

Grama away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + Grama defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Grama attack 1.34 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Reddis scores more

49%

level

26%

Grama scores more

24%

Reddis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Joan Torrents

29'

Joan Torrents

46'

Marc Canteras← Maikel Tijan

60'

Ricardo Vaz

64'

Álvaro Martí← Varona

66'

Aitor Serrano← Pol Benito

66'

Hugo Moreno← Alberto Benito

70'

Yassin Bouchane← Pau Rosales

70'

Ferrán Baqué← Jandro

76'

Marc Grau← Ricardo Vaz

76'

Ramón Sardà← Joan Torrents

76'

Roger García← Walid Meddeb

84'

Pol Fernández← Ramón Folch

87'

Ramón Sardà

Reddis

Grama

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Torrents

Manager: Marc Carrasco

66'▲Aitor Serrano←▼Pol Benito

66'▲Hugo Moreno←▼Alberto Benito

76'▲Marc Grau←▼Ricardo Vaz

76'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Joan Torrents

84'▲Pol Fernández←▼Ramón Folch

Reddis substitutes

SerranoMorenoGrauSardàFernández

Manager: Joan Esteva

46'▲Marc Canteras←▼Maikel Tijan

64'▲Álvaro Martí←▼Varona

70'▲Yassin Bouchane←▼Pau Rosales

70'▲Ferrán Baqué←▼Jandro

76'▲Roger García←▼Walid Meddeb

Grama substitutes

CanterasMartíBouchaneBaquéGarcía

Reddis 4 – 0 Grama

Reddis beat Grama 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 10, 2024.

Goals: Joan Torrents (19', 29'), Ricardo Vaz (60'), Ramón Sardà (87').

The match was played at Estadio Camp Nou Municipal in Reus.

Reddis vs Grama — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Reddis 4 – 0 Grama