Grama 1–2 Reddis: Result & Stats

Grama

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Reddis

Erik Rafael 86'

Sergi Casals 63'

Joan Torrents 57'

3/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 27Nou Camp Municipal de Santa Coloma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Grama37%

×Draw29%

Reddis34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GramaExpected goals in this matchReddis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.08

Grama

1.14

Reddis

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 34 away

1.21

creates per match

1.15

1.01

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Grama

1.21

Reddis

1.15

allows per match

Grama

1.01

Reddis

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grama+0.00on par

Reddis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grama ↓

Reddis →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Grama or draw

66%

Grama or Reddis

71%

Draw or Reddis

63%

Winning margin

Grama wins by 2+

15%

Reddis wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Grama 1+ goals

68%

Grama 2+ goals

32%

Grama 3+ goals

11%

Reddis 1+ goals

66%

Reddis 2+ goals

29%

Reddis 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Grama (draw refunded)

52%

Reddis (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Grama at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.01 · 95 matches

Reddis away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Grama attack 1.21 + Reddis defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Reddis attack 1.15 + Grama defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Grama scores more

37%

level

29%

Reddis scores more

34%

Grama at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Grama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

Joan Torrents

63'

Sergi Casals

64'

Pau Rosales← Álvaro Martí

64'

Jandro← Hurtado

64'

Varona← Iván Julián

70'

Raúl Melo← Alberto Benito

72'

Roger Peris← Yassin Bouchane

76'

Pol Benito← Pau Russó

76'

Pol Fernández← Ramón Folch

79'

Salva Torreño← Daniel Palomeque

85'

Marc Grau← Xavi Jaime

85'

Ramón Sardà← Joan Torrents

86'

Erik Rafael

Grama

Reddis

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: José Sicart

64'▲Pau Rosales←▼Álvaro Martí

64'▲Jandro←▼Hurtado

64'▲Varona←▼Iván Julián

72'▲Roger Peris←▼Yassin Bouchane

79'▲Salva Torreño←▼Daniel Palomeque

Grama substitutes

RosalesJandroVaronaPerisTorreño

Manager: Marc Carrasco

70'▲Raúl Melo←▼Alberto Benito

76'▲Pol Benito←▼Pau Russó

76'▲Pol Fernández←▼Ramón Folch

85'▲Marc Grau←▼Xavi Jaime

85'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Joan Torrents

Reddis substitutes

MeloBenitoFernándezGrauSardà

Match Recap: Grama vs Reddis

Reddis beat Grama 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 23, 2025.

Goals: Joan Torrents (57'), Sergi Casals (63'), Erik Rafael (86').

The match was played at Nou Camp Municipal de Santa Coloma in Santa Coloma de Gramenet.

Grama vs Reddis — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Grama vs Reddis