Reddis 1–1 Europa II: Result & Stats

Reddis

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Europa II

Ramón Folch 48' (pen)

Buba 39'

10/13/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 6Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reddis49%

×Draw26%

Europa II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchEuropa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.01

Reddis

1.53

Europa II

1.01

Reddis creates 51% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

1.47

creates per match

1.44

0.59

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

Europa II

1.44

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

Europa II

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

Europa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Europa II →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

75%

Reddis or Europa II

74%

Draw or Europa II

51%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

25%

Europa II wins by 2+

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

78%

Reddis 2+ goals

45%

Reddis 3+ goals

20%

Europa II 1+ goals

64%

Europa II 2+ goals

27%

Europa II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

66%

Europa II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

Europa II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + Europa II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.53

Europa II attack 1.44 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Reddis scores more

49%

level

26%

Europa II scores more

25%

Reddis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Buba

48'

Ramón FolchPenalty

64'

Marc Angles← Sergio Romero

64'

Aiman Boussid← B. Manuylov

67'

Pol Benito← Pau Russó

73'

Sergi Basart← Marc Fuster

76'

Marc Grau← Aitor Serrano

76'

Ramón Sardà← Joan Torrents

78'

Pau Sala← Román Vittucci

78'

Dani Gonzálbez← Arnau Villa

Reddis

Europa

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Marc Carrasco

67'▲Pol Benito←▼Pau Russó

76'▲Marc Grau←▼Aitor Serrano

76'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Joan Torrents

Reddis substitutes

BenitoGrauSardà

Manager: Jonathan Ruiz

64'▲Marc Angles←▼Sergio Romero

64'▲Aiman Boussid←▼B. Manuylov

73'▲Sergi Basart←▼Marc Fuster

78'▲Pau Sala←▼Román Vittucci

78'▲Dani Gonzálbez←▼Arnau Villa

Europa II substitutes

AnglesBoussidBasartSalaGonzálbez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Reddis 1–1 Europa II

Reddis and Europa II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 13, 2024.

Goals: Buba (39'), Ramón Folch (48' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Camp Nou Municipal in Reus.

Reddis vs Europa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Reddis 1–1 Europa II