Europa II 0–2 Reddis: Result & Stats

Europa II

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Reddis

Ricardo Vaz 80'

Sergi Casals 42'

2/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 23Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Europa II32%

×Draw27%

Reddis40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Europa IIExpected goals in this matchReddis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.31

Europa II

1.14

Reddis

1.31

Reddis creates 15% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

1.21

creates per match

1.15

1.48

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Europa II

1.21

Reddis

1.15

allows per match

Europa II

1.48

Reddis

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Europa II+0.00on par

Reddis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Europa II ↓

Reddis →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Europa II or draw

60%

Europa II or Reddis

73%

Draw or Reddis

68%

Winning margin

Europa II wins by 2+

13%

Reddis wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Europa II 1+ goals

68%

Europa II 2+ goals

32%

Europa II 3+ goals

11%

Reddis 1+ goals

73%

Reddis 2+ goals

38%

Reddis 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Europa II (draw refunded)

44%

Reddis (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Europa II at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.48 · 33 matches

Reddis away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Europa II attack 1.21 + Reddis defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Reddis attack 1.15 + Europa II defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Europa II scores more

32%

level

27%

Reddis scores more

40%

Reddis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Sergi Casals

62'

Sergio Romero← B. Manuylov

62'

Héctor Tejada← Valter

69'

Nico Díaz← Joan Torrents

69'

Hugo Moreno← Pol Benito

74'

Julen Vilarrasa← Manel Lozano

74'

Alejandro Salcedo← Arnau Villa

80'

Ricardo Vaz

81'

Víctor Ibar← Dani Gonzálbez

82'

Pedro Martín← Aitor Serrano

86'

Marc Grau← Alberto Benito

86'

Ramón Sardà← Ricardo Vaz

Europa

Reddis

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Jonathan Ruiz

62'▲Sergio Romero←▼B. Manuylov

62'▲Héctor Tejada←▼Valter

74'▲Julen Vilarrasa←▼Manel Lozano

74'▲Alejandro Salcedo←▼Arnau Villa

81'▲Víctor Ibar←▼Dani Gonzálbez

Europa II substitutes

RomeroTejadaVilarrasaSalcedoIbar

Manager: Marc Carrasco

69'▲Nico Díaz←▼Joan Torrents

69'▲Hugo Moreno←▼Pol Benito

82'▲Pedro Martín←▼Aitor Serrano

86'▲Marc Grau←▼Alberto Benito

86'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Ricardo Vaz

Reddis substitutes

DíazMorenoMartínGrauSardà

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Europa II 0–2 Reddis

Reddis beat Europa II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 23, 2025.

Goals: Sergi Casals (42'), Ricardo Vaz (80').

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol Nou Sardenya in Barcelona.

Europa II vs Reddis — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Europa II 0–2 Reddis