Reddis 4–1 Cerdanyola del Vallès: Result & Stats

Reddis

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cerdanyola del Vallès

Aitor Serrano 86'

Joan Torrents 76', 35'

Ricardo Vaz 53'

Javi López 67'

12/15/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 15Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reddis52%

×Draw27%

Cerdanyola del Vallès21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchCerdanyola del Vallès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.83

Reddis

1.46

Cerdanyola del Vallès

0.83

Reddis creates 76% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 77 away

1.47

creates per match

1.08

0.59

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.08

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Cerdanyola del Vallès →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

79%

Reddis or Cerdanyola del Vallès

73%

Draw or Cerdanyola del Vallès

48%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

26%

Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

77%

Reddis 2+ goals

43%

Reddis 3+ goals

18%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals

56%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals

20%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

71%

Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.08 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Reddis scores more

52%

level

27%

Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more

21%

Reddis at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Joan Torrents

46'

Jordi Solé← Álex Alba

50'

Josep Bonilla← Pau Ferrer

53'

Ricardo Vaz

63'

Y. Zayzoun← Albert Ruiz

63'

Carlos Portero← Xavier Murcia

67'

Javi López

70'

Pol Fernández← Pau Russó

70'

Nico Díaz← Alberto Benito

76'

Joan Torrents

81'

Onan Quesada← Jordi Avilés

86'

Aitor Serrano

87'

Pol Benito← Joan Torrents

87'

Hugo Moreno← Ramón Folch

87'

Ramón Sardà← Aitor Serrano

Reddis

Cerdanyola

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Serrano

⚽2

▼

Torrents

Manager: Marc Carrasco

70'▲Pol Fernández←▼Pau Russó

70'▲Nico Díaz←▼Alberto Benito

87'▲Pol Benito←▼Joan Torrents

87'▲Hugo Moreno←▼Ramón Folch

87'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Aitor Serrano

Reddis substitutes

FernándezDíazBenitoMorenoSardà

Manager: Santi Álvarez

46'▲Jordi Solé←▼Álex Alba

50'▲Josep Bonilla←▼Pau Ferrer

63'▲Y. Zayzoun←▼Albert Ruiz

63'▲Carlos Portero←▼Xavier Murcia

81'▲Onan Quesada←▼Jordi Avilés

Cerdanyola del Vallès substitutes

SoléBonillaZayzounPorteroQuesada

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Reddis 4–1 Cerdanyola del Vallès

Reddis beat Cerdanyola del Vallès 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 15, 2024.

Goals: Joan Torrents (35', 76'), Ricardo Vaz (53'), Javi López (67'), Aitor Serrano (86').

The match was played at Estadio Camp Nou Municipal in Reus.

Reddis vs Cerdanyola del Vallès — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Reddis 4–1 Cerdanyola del Vallès