Cerdanyola del Vallès 2–1 Reddis: Result & Stats

Cerdanyola del Vallès

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Reddis

Siaba Oulai 90'

M. Ajani 80'

Ramón Folch 85'

4/27/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 32Estadio Municipal Les Fontetes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès34%

×Draw27%

Reddis39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cerdanyola del VallèsExpected goals in this matchReddis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.29

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.19

Reddis

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 34 away

1.31

creates per match

1.15

1.43

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.31

Reddis

1.15

allows per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès

1.43

Reddis

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Reddis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerdanyola del Vallès ↓

Reddis →

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cerdanyola del Vallès or draw

61%

Cerdanyola del Vallès or Reddis

73%

Draw or Reddis

66%

Winning margin

Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+

14%

Reddis wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals

70%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals

33%

Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals

12%

Reddis 1+ goals

72%

Reddis 2+ goals

37%

Reddis 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)

47%

Reddis (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Cerdanyola del Vallès at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Reddis away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.31 + Reddis defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Reddis attack 1.15 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more

34%

level

27%

Reddis scores more

39%

Reddis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Hugo Moreno← Marc Grau

61'

Leo Dos Reis← Javi López

67'

Ricardo Vaz← Pau Russó

67'

Nico Díaz← Sergi Casals

75'

Siaba Oulai← Josep Bonilla

75'

Guifré Bernabeu← Jordi Avilés

80'

M. Ajani

85'

Ramón Folch

88'

Adrià Alsina← Albert Ruiz

88'

Alex Fernández← Y. Zayzoun

88'

Pedro Martín← Aitor Serrano

88'

Pol Benito← Ramón Folch

90'

Siaba Oulai

Cerdanyola

Reddis

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Santi Álvarez

61'▲Leo Dos Reis←▼Javi López

75'▲Siaba Oulai←▼Josep Bonilla

75'▲Guifré Bernabeu←▼Jordi Avilés

88'▲Adrià Alsina←▼Albert Ruiz

88'▲Alex Fernández←▼Y. Zayzoun

Cerdanyola del Vallès substitutes

ReisOulaiBernabeuAlsinaFernández

Manager: Marc Carrasco

58'▲Hugo Moreno←▼Marc Grau

67'▲Ricardo Vaz←▼Pau Russó

67'▲Nico Díaz←▼Sergi Casals

88'▲Pedro Martín←▼Aitor Serrano

88'▲Pol Benito←▼Ramón Folch

Reddis substitutes

MorenoVazDíazMartínBenito

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Cerdanyola del Vallès 2–1 Reddis

Cerdanyola del Vallès beat Reddis 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 27, 2025.

Goals: M. Ajani (80'), Ramón Folch (85'), Siaba Oulai (90').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Les Fontetes in Cerdanyola del Vallès.

Cerdanyola del Vallès vs Reddis — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Cerdanyola del Vallès 2–1 Reddis