Reddis 0–1 Badalona II: Result & Stats

Reddis

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Badalona II

Willy 79'

3/17/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 25Estadio Camp Nou Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Reddis49%

×Draw28%

Badalona II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReddisExpected goals in this matchBadalona II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.85

Reddis

1.37

Badalona II

0.85

Reddis creates 61% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 49 away

1.47

creates per match

1.12

0.59

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Reddis

1.47

Badalona II

1.12

allows per match

Reddis

0.59

Badalona II

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Reddis+0.00on par

Badalona II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reddis ↓

Badalona II →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Reddis or draw

77%

Reddis or Badalona II

72%

Draw or Badalona II

51%

Winning margin

Reddis wins by 2+

24%

Badalona II wins by 2+

Team goals

Reddis 1+ goals

75%

Reddis 2+ goals

40%

Reddis 3+ goals

16%

Badalona II 1+ goals

57%

Badalona II 2+ goals

21%

Badalona II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Reddis (draw refunded)

68%

Badalona II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Reddis at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.59 · 34 matches

Badalona II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.27 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Reddis attack 1.47 + Badalona II defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

Badalona II attack 1.12 + Reddis defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Reddis scores more

49%

level

28%

Badalona II scores more

23%

Reddis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Reddis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Willy← Kilian Durán

59'

Dani Argilaga← Alberto Benito

70'

Jordi Ortega← David Batanero

74'

Ramón Sardà← Ian Martínez

79'

Willy

81'

H. Toivonen← Pol Benito

81'

Carlos Martinez← David Jiménez

81'

Hugo Caroz← Toni Larrosa

81'

Walid Meddeb← Dani Homet

85'

X. Manrique

85'

R. Vaz

Reddis

Badalona

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Marc Carrasco

59'▲Dani Argilaga←▼Alberto Benito

74'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Ian Martínez

81'▲H. Toivonen←▼Pol Benito

Reddis substitutes

ArgilagaSardàToivonen

Manager: Gerard Albadalejo

58'▲Willy←▼Kilian Durán

70'▲Jordi Ortega←▼David Batanero

81'▲Carlos Martinez←▼David Jiménez

81'▲Hugo Caroz←▼Toni Larrosa

81'▲Walid Meddeb←▼Dani Homet

Badalona II substitutes

WillyOrtegaMartinezCarozMeddeb

Match Recap: Reddis vs Badalona II

Badalona II beat Reddis 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 17, 2024.

Goals: Willy (79').

The match was played at Estadio Camp Nou Municipal in Reus.

Reddis vs Badalona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Reddis vs Badalona II