Badalona II 4–0 Reddis: Result & Stats

Badalona II

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Reddis

Toni Larrosa 83'

David Batanero 64', 47'

Walid Meddeb 55' (pen)

10/29/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 8Estadi Municipal de Badalona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Badalona II41%

×Draw28%

Reddis31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Badalona IIExpected goals in this matchReddis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.07

Badalona II

1.27

Reddis

1.07

Badalona II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 34 away

1.49

creates per match

1.15

1.00

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Badalona II

1.49

Reddis

1.15

allows per match

Badalona II

1.00

Reddis

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Badalona II+0.00on par

Reddis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badalona II ↓

Reddis →

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Badalona II or draw

69%

Badalona II or Reddis

72%

Draw or Reddis

59%

Winning margin

Badalona II wins by 2+

18%

Reddis wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Badalona II 1+ goals

72%

Badalona II 2+ goals

36%

Badalona II 3+ goals

14%

Reddis 1+ goals

66%

Reddis 2+ goals

29%

Reddis 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Badalona II (draw refunded)

57%

Reddis (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Badalona II at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.00 · 49 matches

Reddis away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Badalona II attack 1.49 + Reddis defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Reddis attack 1.15 + Badalona II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Badalona II scores more

41%

level

28%

Reddis scores more

31%

Badalona II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Badalona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

Ramón Sardà← Jordi Oribe

47'

David Batanero

55'

Walid MeddebPenalty

61'

M. Rosales← Albert Miravent

61'

Nico Díaz← Ramón Folch

64'

David Batanero

66'

Pol Benito← Dani Argilaga

71'

Adrián Rivas← Bruno

71'

Joel Armengol← Carlos Martinez

81'

Sergio Romero← Cristian Márquez

81'

Xavier Manrique← Marc Muñoz

83'

Toni Larrosa

86'

Marc Velasco← Albert Estellés

Badalona

Reddis

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Santi Álvarez

71'▲Adrián Rivas←▼Bruno

71'▲Joel Armengol←▼Carlos Martinez

81'▲Sergio Romero←▼Cristian Márquez

81'▲Xavier Manrique←▼Marc Muñoz

86'▲Marc Velasco←▼Albert Estellés

Badalona II substitutes

RivasArmengolRomeroManriqueVelasco

Manager: Marc Carrasco

26'▲Ramón Sardà←▼Jordi Oribe

61'▲M. Rosales←▼Albert Miravent

61'▲Nico Díaz←▼Ramón Folch

66'▲Pol Benito←▼Dani Argilaga

Reddis substitutes

SardàRosalesDíazBenito

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Badalona II 4–0 Reddis

Badalona II beat Reddis 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 29, 2023.

Goals: David Batanero (47', 64'), Walid Meddeb (55' pen), Toni Larrosa (83').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Badalona in Badalona.

Badalona II vs Reddis — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Badalona II 4–0 Reddis