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Red Star Penzing vs Hellas Kagran — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Red Star Penzing
Red Star Penzing
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Hellas Kagran
Hellas Kagran
8/15/2025Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 1Sportplatz Red Star Auto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Red Star Penzing62%
×Draw19%
Hellas Kagran19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Star Penzing
2.37
Hellas Kagran
1.25

Red Star Penzing creates 90% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 30 away

creates per match

Red Star Penzing
2.00
Hellas Kagran
1.53

allows per match

Red Star Penzing
0.97
Hellas Kagran
2.73

finishing

Red Star Penzing+0.00on par
Hellas Kagran+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Star Penzing ↓

Hellas Kagran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Red Star Penzing or draw
81%
Red Star Penzing or Hellas Kagran
81%
Draw or Hellas Kagran
38%

Winning margin

Red Star Penzing wins by 2+
40%
Hellas Kagran wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Red Star Penzing 1+ goals
91%
Red Star Penzing 2+ goals
68%
Red Star Penzing 3+ goals
42%
Hellas Kagran 1+ goals
71%
Hellas Kagran 2+ goals
36%
Hellas Kagran 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Red Star Penzing (draw refunded)
76%
Hellas Kagran (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Star Penzing at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Hellas Kagran away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Star Penzing attack 2.00 + Hellas Kagran defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.37

Hellas Kagran attack 1.53 + Red Star Penzing defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Red Star Penzing scores more
62%
level
19%
Hellas Kagran scores more
19%

Red Star Penzing at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Red Star Penzing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Red Star Penzing 4–1 Hellas Kagran

Red Star Penzing beat Hellas Kagran 4-1 in Landesliga - Wien on August 15, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Red Star Auto in Wien.