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Hellas Kagran vs Red Star Penzing — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Hellas Kagran
Hellas Kagran
FT
3 – 2
Red Star Penzing
Red Star Penzing
3/2/2024Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 16Hellas Kagran Sport-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Hellas Kagran33%
×Draw24%
Red Star Penzing43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hellas Kagran
1.46
Red Star Penzing
1.69

Red Star Penzing creates 16% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

creates per match

Hellas Kagran
1.21
Red Star Penzing
1.40

allows per match

Hellas Kagran
1.97
Red Star Penzing
1.70

finishing

Hellas Kagran+0.00on par
Red Star Penzing+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hellas Kagran ↓

Red Star Penzing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hellas Kagran or draw
57%
Hellas Kagran or Red Star Penzing
76%
Draw or Red Star Penzing
67%

Winning margin

Hellas Kagran wins by 2+
15%
Red Star Penzing wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hellas Kagran 1+ goals
77%
Hellas Kagran 2+ goals
43%
Hellas Kagran 3+ goals
18%
Red Star Penzing 1+ goals
82%
Red Star Penzing 2+ goals
50%
Red Star Penzing 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hellas Kagran (draw refunded)
44%
Red Star Penzing (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hellas Kagran at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

Red Star Penzing away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hellas Kagran attack 1.21 + Red Star Penzing defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.46

Red Star Penzing attack 1.40 + Hellas Kagran defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hellas Kagran scores more
33%
level
24%
Red Star Penzing scores more
43%

Red Star Penzing at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Red Star Penzing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Hellas Kagran 3–2 Red Star Penzing

Hellas Kagran beat Red Star Penzing 3-2 in Landesliga - Wien on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Hellas Kagran Sport-Arena in Wien.