Red Star Penzing 2–1 Donau: Result & Stats

Red Star Penzing

FT

2 – 1

Donau

11/17/2023

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 14Sportplatz Red Star Auto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Red Star Penzing47%

×Draw24%

Donau29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Red Star PenzingExpected goals in this matchDonau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.32

Red Star Penzing

1.73

Donau

1.32

Red Star Penzing creates 31% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 58 away

2.00

creates per match

1.67

0.97

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Red Star Penzing

2.00

Donau

1.67

allows per match

Red Star Penzing

0.97

Donau

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Red Star Penzing+0.00on par

Donau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Star Penzing ↓

Donau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Red Star Penzing or draw

71%

Red Star Penzing or Donau

76%

Draw or Donau

53%

Winning margin

Red Star Penzing wins by 2+

25%

Donau wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Red Star Penzing 1+ goals

82%

Red Star Penzing 2+ goals

52%

Red Star Penzing 3+ goals

25%

Donau 1+ goals

73%

Donau 2+ goals

38%

Donau 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Red Star Penzing (draw refunded)

62%

Donau (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Star Penzing at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.97 · 32 matches

Donau away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.45 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Star Penzing attack 2.00 + Donau defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Donau attack 1.67 + Red Star Penzing defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Red Star Penzing scores more

47%

level

24%

Donau scores more

29%

Red Star Penzing at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Red Star Penzing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff