Donau 0–1 Red Star Penzing: Result & Stats

Donau

FT

0 – 1

Red Star Penzing

6/14/2024

Landesliga - Wien · Wien - 29Sportplatz SV Donau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Donau48%

×Draw24%

Red Star Penzing28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DonauExpected goals in this matchRed Star Penzing

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.21

Donau

1.67

Red Star Penzing

1.21

Donau creates 38% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

1.65

creates per match

1.40

1.02

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Donau

1.65

Red Star Penzing

1.40

allows per match

Donau

1.02

Red Star Penzing

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Donau+0.00on par

Red Star Penzing+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donau ↓

Red Star Penzing →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Donau or draw

72%

Donau or Red Star Penzing

76%

Draw or Red Star Penzing

52%

Winning margin

Donau wins by 2+

25%

Red Star Penzing wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Donau 1+ goals

81%

Donau 2+ goals

50%

Donau 3+ goals

23%

Red Star Penzing 1+ goals

70%

Red Star Penzing 2+ goals

34%

Red Star Penzing 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Donau (draw refunded)

63%

Red Star Penzing (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donau at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.02 · 60 matches

Red Star Penzing away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donau attack 1.65 + Red Star Penzing defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.67

Red Star Penzing attack 1.40 + Donau defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Donau scores more

48%

level

24%

Red Star Penzing scores more

28%

Donau at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Donau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff