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RED Star FC 93 vs Reims — Ligue 2 2018

RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Reims
Reims
G. Kyei 10'
1/30/2017Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade Jean-Bouin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

RED Star FC 9329%
×Draw26%
Reims45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RED Star FC 93
1.10
Reims
1.43

Reims creates 30% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 27 away

creates per match

RED Star FC 93
1.17
Reims
1.52

allows per match

RED Star FC 93
1.33
Reims
1.04

finishing

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par
Reims+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RED Star FC 93 ↓

Reims →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

RED Star FC 93 or draw
55%
RED Star FC 93 or Reims
74%
Draw or Reims
71%

Winning margin

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
11%
Reims wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
67%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
30%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
10%
Reims 1+ goals
76%
Reims 2+ goals
42%
Reims 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
39%
Reims (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RED Star FC 93 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 54 matches

Reims away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.17 + Reims defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Reims attack 1.52 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

RED Star FC 93 scores more
29%
level
26%
Reims scores more
45%

Reims at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Reims will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
A. WeberReimsReims · D
8.4

Match Events

10'
G. Kyei↳ A. Weber
21'
Sekou Keita
60'
Grejohn Kyei
60'
A. Sané← J. Mexique
69'
G. Charbonnier← G. Kyei
77'
Jaba Kankava
79'
T. Keita← R. Amieux
79'
S. Raheriharimanana← S. Keita
81'
R. Oudin← Diego
86'
Danilson← P. Chavarría
90'
Jérôme Hergault

Possession

62%RED

Shots

8RED

Pass accuracy

53%RED

Statistics

REDReims
Overview
62%Possession38%
8Total Shots11
6Corners4
8Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots11
3On Target5
4Off Target5
1Blocked1
4Inside Box10
4Outside Box1
Passing
62%Possession38%
582Total Passes350
473Accurate Passes257
81%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls12
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
0Offsides4

Ligue 2: RED Star FC 93 0–1 Reims

Reims beat RED Star FC 93 1-0 in Ligue 2 on January 30, 2017.

Goals: G. Kyei (10').

RED Star FC 93 controlled possession (62%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Jean-Bouin in Paris.