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RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier — Ligue 2 2018

RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Montpellier
Montpellier
K. Cabral 43'
N. Pays 88'
5/9/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 34Stade Bauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

RED Star FC 9330%
×Draw31%
Montpellier39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RED Star FC 93
0.91
Montpellier
1.07

Montpellier creates 18% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 17 away

creates per match

RED Star FC 93
1.17
Montpellier
0.82

allows per match

RED Star FC 93
1.33
Montpellier
0.65

finishing

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par
Montpellier+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RED Star FC 93 ↓

Montpellier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

RED Star FC 93 or draw
61%
RED Star FC 93 or Montpellier
69%
Draw or Montpellier
70%

Winning margin

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
11%
Montpellier wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
60%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
23%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
6%
Montpellier 1+ goals
66%
Montpellier 2+ goals
29%
Montpellier 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
44%
Montpellier (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RED Star FC 93 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 54 matches

Montpellier away — creates 0.82, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.17 + Montpellier defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.91

Montpellier attack 0.82 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

RED Star FC 93 scores more
30%
level
31%
Montpellier scores more
39%

Montpellier at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
J. LaporteMontpellierMontpellier · D
7.5

Match Events

37'
Enzo Tchato Mbiayi
43'
K. Cabral↳ J. Ikanga
60'
T. Sainte-Luce← L. Mincarelli
60'
R. Thiland Herard← E. Molebe
61'
Josue Escartin
61'
N. Mbuku← N. Homssa
64'
H. Benali← J. Ikanga
64'
A. Hachem← K. Cabral
68'
G. Haag← D. Durand
72'
N. El Hannach← E. Tchato
73'
T. Savanier← C. Jullien
79'
S. E. Khaoui← T. Magnin
79'
P. M. Ba← R. Hachem
88'
N. Pays

Possession

49%RED

Shots

17RED

Pass accuracy

50%RED

Statistics

REDMontpellier
Overview
49%Possession51%
17Total Shots8
3Corners3
7Fouls14
Shots
17Total Shots8
5On Target5
9Off Target3
3Blocked0
13Inside Box8
4Outside Box1
Passing
49%Possession51%
444Total Passes459
364Accurate Passes383
82%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: RED Star FC 93 vs Montpellier

RED Star FC 93 and Montpellier drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on May 9, 2026.

Goals: K. Cabral (43'), N. Pays (88').

Montpellier controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stade Bauer in Paris - Saint-Ouen.