Montpellier 1–1 RED Star FC 93: Result & Stats

Montpellier

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

RED Star FC 93

B. Omeragic 38'

D. Durand 11'

8/9/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade de la Mosson

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Montpellier46%

×Draw26%

RED Star FC 9329%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MontpellierExpected goals in this matchRED Star FC 93

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.13

Montpellier

1.50

RED Star FC 93

1.13

Montpellier creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 53 away

1.59

creates per match

1.08

1.18

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Montpellier

1.59

RED Star FC 93

1.08

allows per match

Montpellier

1.18

RED Star FC 93

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Montpellier+0.00on par

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montpellier ↓

RED Star FC 93 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Montpellier or draw

71%

Montpellier or RED Star FC 93

74%

Draw or RED Star FC 93

54%

Winning margin

Montpellier wins by 2+

23%

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Montpellier 1+ goals

78%

Montpellier 2+ goals

44%

Montpellier 3+ goals

19%

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals

68%

RED Star FC 93 2+ goals

31%

RED Star FC 93 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Montpellier (draw refunded)

62%

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montpellier at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

RED Star FC 93 away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montpellier attack 1.59 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.50

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.08 + Montpellier defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Montpellier scores more

46%

level

26%

RED Star FC 93 scores more

29%

Montpellier at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Montpellier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

B. Omeragic

Montpellier · M

8.2

Match Events

11'

D. Durand↳ D. Sylla

12'

N. Pays← K. Fayad

38'

B. Omeragic↳ N. Mbuku

40'

Jovany Ikanga

46'

S. Renel← V. Kany

59'

S. E. Khaoui← J. Ikanga

59'

A. Hachem← G. Trani

67'

Bećir Omeragić

67'

J. Chotard← Y. Mouanga

72'

T. Sainte-Luce← L. Mincarelli

82'

Dembo Sylla

84'

T. Savanier← T. Coulibaly

85'

M. Ahamada← R. Hachem

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MontpellierRED

Overview

51%Possession49%

6Total Shots7

1Corners2

16Fouls10

Shots

6Total Shots7

2On Target3

4Off Target4

0Blocked0

3Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

434Total Passes410

362Accurate Passes340

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

7Offsides4