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RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Bastia
Bastia
4/11/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 30Stade Bauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

RED Star FC 9335%
×Draw28%
Bastia37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RED Star FC 93
1.19
Bastia
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 91 away

creates per match

RED Star FC 93
1.05
Bastia
1.03

allows per match

RED Star FC 93
1.42
Bastia
1.33

finishing

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RED Star FC 93 ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

RED Star FC 93 or draw
63%
RED Star FC 93 or Bastia
72%
Draw or Bastia
65%

Winning margin

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
15%
Bastia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
70%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
33%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
12%
Bastia 1+ goals
71%
Bastia 2+ goals
35%
Bastia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
49%
Bastia (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RED Star FC 93 at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.05 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Bastia attack 1.03 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

RED Star FC 93 scores more
35%
level
28%
Bastia scores more
37%

Bastia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RED Star FC 93 vs Bastia

RED Star FC 93 beat Bastia 4-3 in Ligue 2 on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Bauer in Paris - Saint-Ouen.