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Bastia vs RED Star FC 93 — Ligue 2 2018

Bastia
Bastia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
2/21/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade Armand-Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Bastia42%
×Draw29%
RED Star FC 9329%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bastia
1.25
RED Star FC 93
0.98

Bastia creates 28% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 53 away

creates per match

Bastia
1.19
RED Star FC 93
1.04

allows per match

Bastia
0.92
RED Star FC 93
1.32

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par
RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

RED Star FC 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bastia or draw
71%
Bastia or RED Star FC 93
71%
Draw or RED Star FC 93
58%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+
19%
RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals
71%
Bastia 2+ goals
36%
Bastia 3+ goals
13%
RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
62%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
26%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)
59%
RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.92 · 91 matches

RED Star FC 93 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.32 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.19 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.04 + Bastia defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bastia scores more
42%
level
29%
RED Star FC 93 scores more
29%

Bastia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Bastia 1–0 RED Star FC 93

Bastia beat RED Star FC 93 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Armand-Césari in Furiani.