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RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy — Ligue 2 2018

RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Annecy
Annecy
D. Durand 21' (pen)
8/29/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade Bauer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

RED Star FC 9338%
×Draw26%
Annecy36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RED Star FC 93
1.32
Annecy
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 72 away

creates per match

RED Star FC 93
1.17
Annecy
1.24

allows per match

RED Star FC 93
1.33
Annecy
1.47

finishing

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par
Annecy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RED Star FC 93 ↓

Annecy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

RED Star FC 93 or draw
64%
RED Star FC 93 or Annecy
74%
Draw or Annecy
62%

Winning margin

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
17%
Annecy wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
73%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
38%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
15%
Annecy 1+ goals
72%
Annecy 2+ goals
37%
Annecy 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
51%
Annecy (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RED Star FC 93 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 54 matches

Annecy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.17 + Annecy defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Annecy attack 1.24 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

RED Star FC 93 scores more
38%
level
26%
Annecy scores more
36%

RED Star FC 93 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "RED Star FC 93 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
P. LemonnierRED Star FC 93RED Star FC 93 · D
7.3

Match Events

21'
D. DurandPenalty
61'
M. Veillon← T. Delphis
61'
P. Venot← R. Neelakandan
61'
Q. Paris← T. Rambaud
69'
B. Danger← S. E. Khaoui
70'
Paul Venot
80'
J. Tiendrebeogo← F. Lajugie
81'
H. Benali← D. Durand
81'
A. Hachem← J. Ikanga
83'
A. Yahi← A. Hbouch

Possession

38%RED

Shots

5RED

Pass accuracy

44%RED

Statistics

REDAnnecy
Overview
38%Possession62%
5Total Shots5
2Corners4
14Fouls16
Shots
5Total Shots5
1On Target0
2Off Target4
2Blocked1
3Inside Box3
2Outside Box2
Passing
38%Possession62%
300Total Passes494
184Accurate Passes391
61%Pass Accuracy79%
Discipline
14Fouls16
0Yellow Cards1
6Offsides0

Match Recap: RED Star FC 93 vs Annecy

RED Star FC 93 beat Annecy 1-0 in Ligue 2 on August 29, 2025.

Goals: D. Durand (21' pen).

Annecy controlled possession (62%) and registered 5 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade Bauer in Paris - Saint-Ouen.