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Red Lions vs Chitipa United — Super League 2026

Red Lions
Red Lions
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chitipa United
Chitipa United
M. Magaleta 75' (pen)
6/21/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Red Lions47%
×Draw30%
Chitipa United23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Lions
1.21
Chitipa United
0.74

Red Lions creates 64% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 65 away

creates per match

Red Lions
0.88
Chitipa United
0.48

allows per match

Red Lions
1.00
Chitipa United
1.54

finishing

Red Lions+0.00on par
Chitipa United+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Lions ↓

Chitipa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Red Lions or draw
77%
Red Lions or Chitipa United
70%
Draw or Chitipa United
53%

Winning margin

Red Lions wins by 2+
21%
Chitipa United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Red Lions 1+ goals
70%
Red Lions 2+ goals
34%
Red Lions 3+ goals
12%
Chitipa United 1+ goals
52%
Chitipa United 2+ goals
17%
Chitipa United 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Red Lions (draw refunded)
68%
Chitipa United (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Lions at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.00 · 50 matches

Chitipa United away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.54 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Lions attack 0.88 + Chitipa United defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.21

Chitipa United attack 0.48 + Red Lions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Red Lions scores more
47%
level
30%
Chitipa United scores more
23%

Red Lions at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
M. MagaletaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Red Lions vs Chitipa United

Red Lions beat Chitipa United 1-0 in Super League on June 21, 2026.

Goals: M. Magaleta (75' pen).